ACWR 1.46 and HRV 20ms (vs 30d avg 22ms) are moving in the same direction — both signaling accumulated stress. RHR flat at 69bpm week-over-week — stable autonomic baseline. Recovery response to load is consistent across session types in your data.

Last night: 5.7h / 70% performance / SWS 2.03h / REM 1.21h. 30-night averages: SWS 2.3h, REM 1.76h, efficiency 93.5%. Last night SWS 2.03h (30d avg 2.3h) / REM 1.21h (30d avg 1.76h) — below personal norms. Expect slight HRV suppression today. Sleep performance and next-day HRV show weak correlation in your data — your HRV response is more load-driven than sleep-driven currently. Resp rate 17.06 brpm is elevated — sustained >16 brpm is an early overreach or illness signal. Watch for convergence with rising RHR and falling HRV over the next 72h.

With 197 days to race day, sport balance is Cycling 67% / Running 5% / Swimming 7% — target is 55/30/15 for a 70.3. Running exposure last 4 weeks: 2 sessions — running economy risk is HIGH. Running at 2 sessions/4wk is below the 3–4/week required to maintain economy heading into the Oct build phase. CTL 56 requires +0.3 pts/week average to reach 65 by Jan 2027 — achievable at current build rate.

CTL rose 46 → 56 in 15 days (+10.1 pts). That's 4.7 pts/week — within the sustainable band of 3–4 pts/week. TSB has averaged -13 over the last 14 days, ranging -38 to +9 — in the recoverable zone. ACWR 1.46 is in the caution zone (>1.2) for 2 days. Not yet dangerous but trending toward overreach territory.

Run volume is ~3 km/wk (0 runs/wk). This is your race-defining limiter: a 21.1 km leg off the bike is built on weekly run volume, and you're ~22 km/wk short of the Aug Base-1 target of 25. The key insight: your aerobic engine is far ahead of your legs — bike CTL 56 means your cardiovascular system can absorb much more running than 3 km/wk; the limiter is musculoskeletal durability, not fitness. So rebuild frequency FIRST — 3–4 easy Z2 runs/wk (HR <137, ~7:00/km) — before any speed work. Speed isn't the problem: your best pace is 5:06/km against a 4:50/km race T-pace target. Bank easy volume now; sharpen pace in the Build phase.

Efficiency Factor (NP/HR) is 1.52 on your last 5 rides vs 1.61 over 8 weeks — the aerobic engine is slipping (-5.6%). EF is the truest fitness read here since it needs no FTP. The finish-strong gap is the headline: you sustain 1.87 W/kg on 30 km+ rides against the 2.0 W/kg target — 0.13 to close. Encouragingly, power holds up as rides lengthen, which is exactly the durability race day demands. Distance is largely solved — longest 108 km of the 90 km leg. Pacing is surgy (VI 2.09); on long rides, smoother output will leave more for the run. Cycling-specific fitness (cyc CTL 56) is 98% of total load — the block is cycling-led, as intended.

Swim has gone quiet — 15 days since your last session, ~1.3 km/wk lately. Distance isn't the worry — you've swum 2.5 km in one session vs the 1.9 km race leg. The two real gaps are sharper: (1) CSS is unverified — your best recent pace is ~2:15/100m but you've never run a formal CSS test, so race pacing is guesswork; (2) zero open-water sessions — all pool, so sighting, wetsuit feel and mass-start chaos are completely untrained. Swim gains are frequency-driven, not volume-driven: 3×/wk with technique focus beats one long grind. Your race CSS target of 1:58/100m would put the 1.9 km swim around 37 min.

Body fat 27% (Withings) vs a 14% race target and the ~7% elite-male floor. Protect muscle (64.8 kg) through the cut — protein 1.6–2.0 g/kg/day; dropping weight by losing muscle costs power. Lean, not just light, is the goal.

SpO₂ 94% at 2240 m — normal acclimatized range. Altitude cuts both ways: a natural hypoxic stimulus that lifts your aerobic ceiling, but it also caps overnight SpO₂ and depresses HRV (same reason the HRV targets are altitude-adjusted).